TITLE:
Housing Prices and Transaction Volumes in Taiwan Region’s Six Major Cities
AUTHORS:
Hsiu-Tao Teng, Chien-Hui Lee, Jen-Yao Lee
KEYWORDS:
Housing Prices, Housing Transaction Volume, Real Estate Market, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Test
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Financial Risk Management,
Vol.15 No.2,
May
27,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study examines the long-run and short-run relationships between housing prices and transaction volume in Taiwan Region’s six special municipalities using quarterly data from 2011 to 2024. The results indicate that housing prices and transaction volume are cointegrated in all cities, although both the direction of the relationship and the adjustment mechanisms vary across municipalities. In most cities, housing prices and transaction volume exhibit negative long-run co-movement, whereas Taoyuan City displays a positive relationship. The VECM results further reveal that the adjustment process differs across regions: transaction volume drives adjustment in some cities, housing prices in others, and no stable adjustment mechanism is observed in certain cases. Short-run dynamics also vary across municipalities, highlighting substantial heterogeneity in housing market behavior.