TITLE:
Analysis of Maximum Winds in Madagascar: Estimation of Wind Return Periods Using Percentiles and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution from 1991 to 2020
AUTHORS:
Sitraka Ravelomanantsoa, Bienvenue Raheliarilalao
KEYWORDS:
Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Maximum Winds, Wind Return Period, Madagascar
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.13 No.4,
April
24,
2026
ABSTRACT: The study of extreme winds in Madagascar is essential not only for understanding severe climatic phenomena and their impacts on infrastructure, but also for assessing human thermal comfort. This work proposes an innovative approach to estimating the return periods of maximum winds, based on the analysis of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles and modeling using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Hourly data from the ERA5-Land database, with a spatial resolution of 9 km and covering three decades (1991 - 2020), were used to provide a more accurate assessment of the frequency and intensity of extreme events. The northwestern region exhibits the longest return periods for 99th percentile winds, indicating greater exposure to severe phenomena, whereas the northeastern region shows significantly shorter recurrence cycles for the 90th and 95th percentile winds, reflecting less extreme but persistent conditions. This study provides more suitable tools for risk and disaster management, while also addressing infrastructure safety and comfort optimization in the context of climate change.