TITLE:
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Gold Futures Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach
AUTHORS:
Rui Wu, Liu Zhuang, Mengfan He
KEYWORDS:
Gold Futures, Economic Policy Uncertainty, GARCH-MIDAS Model, Volatility Prediction, Out-of-Sample Testing
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Business and Management,
Vol.14 No.3,
April
8,
2026
ABSTRACT: Gold, as a special precious metal, has long been regarded by investors as an effective hedging tool with “safe haven” characteristics. This paper embeds global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) into the GARCH-MIDAS framework to examine the impact and predictive contribution of EPU on the volatility of U.S. gold futures. The out-of-sample predictive accuracy of different models is statistically tested using loss functions, model confidence sets (MCS), and out-of-sample
R
2
. Empirical results show that EPU has a significant negative impact on the volatility of the gold futures market; compared with competing models, the GARCH-MIDAS-EPU model incorporating EPU exhibits consistently significant superiority in predictive accuracy.