TITLE:
Dynamical Analysis of Multi-Layer Network Credit Risk Contagion of Banks and Enterprises in the CRT Market under Climate Risk Shocks
AUTHORS:
Xiaoyu Li, Hui An, Yanling Xia
KEYWORDS:
Complex Networks, SIRS Model, Credit Risk Contagion, Climate Risk, Bank-Corporate Credit Network
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Computer and Communications,
Vol.14 No.3,
March
31,
2026
ABSTRACT: The behavior of banks and enterprises in the Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) market determines the diffusion and contagion of credit risk. Research on its contagion evolution mechanism will contribute to establishing financial regulatory strategies. This paper adopts the complex network analysis method and innovatively introduces climate risk influencing factors to explore the credit risk contagion mechanism between banks and enterprises. Based on the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model, a credit risk contagion evolution model is constructed for bank-corporate networks which considers key factors such as risk resistance, capital adequacy, climate change shocks, and climate transition risk. First, the credit risk contagion mechanism between banks and enterprises and the impact of complex network heterogeneity on risk diffusion are analyzed at the theoretical level. On this basis, the advantages of the SIRS model in the study of risk contagion in the CRT market are explored. Subsequently, the evolutionary characteristics of credit risk contagion between bank-corporate credit networks are analyzed using simulation methods. The research results show that: In the bank credit network, the probability of credit risk contagion shows a marginally decreasing characteristic as risk resistance and capital adequacy increase. However, it increases with the probability of credit risk contagion from enterprises to banks and the impacts of climate change. In the enterprise credit network, the probability of credit risk contagion shows a marginally decreasing trend with improvements in information disclosure and market liquidity. However, it increases with climate transition risks and the contagion of credit risk from banks to enterprises, showing a marginally increasing upward trend. The high heterogeneity of the BA scale-free network significantly amplifies the credit risk contagion effects between banks and enterprises, while the relative homogeneity of the WS small-world network can, to some extent, mitigate the concentration of credit risk contagion.