TITLE:
Earthquake Forecast—Vain Expectations?
AUTHORS:
Serguei Bychkov
KEYWORDS:
Earthquake, Earthquake Forecast, Energy, Self-Organized Systems, “Butterfly” by Lorenz
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.15 No.1,
February
28,
2026
ABSTRACT: There are a few people on our planet who have not heard the amazing stories that happened to Baron Munchausen, described in the book by the German writer Rudolf Erich Raspe, “The Return of Baron Munchausen” [1]. He published these stories back in 1786. In 1791, the book was translated into Russian under the title “If You Don’t like It, Don’t Listen”. This title comes to mind when we read scientific articles in which geophysicists discuss various methods and hypotheses for predicting earthquakes. Here, it should be noted that all serious geophysicists are familiar with the article in the journal Nature [2], and from the text of the article, they know that predicting earthquakes is impossible. Still, they, in the spirit of the character of Baron Munchausen, continue to amuse us with amusing stories. At the same time, geophysicists who follow Baron Munchausen claim that all their numerous ideas for successful earthquake forecasting rest on a solid scientific foundation established by Mr. Reid’s Elastic Recoil Theory. And the most astonishing thing about this story is that some geophysicists reject the conclusions drawn from global earthquake forecasting experience and attempt to challenge the fundamental laws of science, while sincerely believing in the possibility of predicting seismic events. This leads to taxpayer money from many countries being spent on ideas and developments that discredit the fundamental principles of science. We have no choice but to demonstrate, once again, the futility and hopelessness of the numerous attempts of those scientists who continue to carry on the work of the oldest geophysicist on Earth, the ancient Greek king of Corinth, Sisyphus, by developing ever-new ideas for predicting seismic events. In this article, we will attempt to refute the conclusions of the followers of King Sisyphus using the theories of self-organizing systems SOC and Lorenz’s “Butterfly,” which have never, anywhere, and by anyone, been refuted.