TITLE:
Risk Assessment of Inter-State Conflict with Cloud Model and Modified Evidence Theory
AUTHORS:
Bingqian Wu
KEYWORDS:
Inter-State Conflict, Risk Assessment, Cloud Model, Modified Evidence Theory
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.3,
March
23,
2026
ABSTRACT: The assessment of inter-state conflict risk involves complex multi-domain interactions and dynamic evolutionary characteristics, presenting substantial challenges to conventional risk evaluation methodologies. This study proposes an innovative risk assessment framework for inter-state conflict by integrating the cloud model and quantum entanglement-weighted evidence synthesis. Based on the national security system perspective, an evaluation system consisting of 18 indicators across five dimensions (politics, military, economy, society, and technology) is constructed. The cloud model is employed to generate indicator membership matrices, while tensor network theory is introduced to characterize high-order semantic relationships between evidence and focal elements. Tensor contraction operations are further used to calibrate belief assignments in conflicting evidence. This approach constructs a systematic evidence synthesis paradigm of cloud model measurement, tensor correction, and quantum weighting. The proposed methodology is validated through application to the 2023 inter-state conflict risk assessment between China and ASEAN nations. Experimental results demonstrate the framework’s superior performance in processing efficiency for high-dimensional evidence, capability for conflict resolution, and rationality of assessment outcomes. This study provides an interpretable quantitative analytical framework for risk evaluation in complex international security scenarios.