TITLE:
Impacts of the General Circulation Represented by the IOD on Maize Yield Anomalies in Zambia
AUTHORS:
Andrew Friday Hakabinga, Jingwei Xu, Clara Liapapa, Fima Sichone, Tanimu Abubakar Sadiq, Silla Abdoul Nassir, Conteh Moneh, Thadee Niyigena
KEYWORDS:
Indian Ocean Dipole, Maize Yield Anomalies, Zambia, Moisture Transport, Climatic Suitability, General Circulation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.14 No.3,
March
17,
2026
ABSTRACT: Maize production in Zambia is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability during the austral summer growing season. Large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation systems modulate moisture transport and convective activity across southern Africa. Among these systems, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a critical role in modulating moisture transport and precipitation patterns across Southern Africa. This study investigates the physical linkage between IOD-related general circulation and maize yield anomalies in Zambia. Using provincial Maize yield data (1993-2024), reanalysis data fields, and climatic suitability indices, we apply the Singular Value Decomposition method (SVD) to examine the coupled variability between the Indian Ocean Sea Surface temperature (SST) Anomalies and precipitation over Zambia. The results show that the leading SVD mode explains a dominant share of the covariance between SST and rainfall, indicating a strong coupling between Indian Ocean Variability and regional climate conditions. We trace a physically consistent pathway from the Indian Ocean’s Sea Surface temperature anomalies to atmospheric circulation and climatic suitability, and yield a response over the study area. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) shows that there is a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of 0.48 for 31 years at a 99% confidence level. The associated precipitation pattern reveals spatial contrasts in rainfall distribution across Zambia that correspond closely to Maize yield anomalies, with precipitation suitability emerging as the dominant climatic control among the three selected variables in the country. The precipitant suitability index acts as a primary modifier, while sunshine duration and temperature play a compensatory role, thereby completing the climatic suitability of the crop. The IOD-related circulation variability significantly influences agricultural productivity. Our findings emphasize the method of forecasting the maize yield in Southern Africa.