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IPPC Secretariat, Gullino, M., Albajes, R., Al-Jboory, I., Angelotti, F., Chakraborty, S., Garrett, K., Hurley, B., Juroszek, P. and Makkouk, K. (2021) Scientific Review of the Impact of Climate Change on Plant Pests. FAO on Behalf of the IPPC Secretariat.

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• TITLE: A Mathematical Model for the Biological Control of Bactrocera dorsalis in Tanzanian Mango Production Systems

  AUTHORS: Triphonia J. Ngailo, Expeditho L. Mtisi

  KEYWORDS: Mathematical Model, Bactrocera dorsalis, Biological Control, Fopius arisanus, Parasitoid Wasps

  JOURNAL NAME: Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, Vol.14 No.3, March 16, 2026

  ABSTRACT: Bactrocera dorsalis is a major invasive pest causing significant economic losses in mango production due to fruit infestation and damage, which can be controlled effectively by the use of their natural enemies, referred to as the biological pest control. This study presents a biologically motivated mathematical model to examine the ecological interactions between mango plants, the oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis), and its parasitoid wasp (Fopius arisanus) in a mango agroecosystem. The model employs a system of nonlinear differential equations to represent the dynamics of mango plants, the population biology of Bactrocera dorsalis, and parasitism behavior of Fopius arisanus. The dynamics of the mango-pest-parasitoid system were analyzed using a mathematical model. The equilibrium points are proved to be locally and globally asymptotically stable under some conditions. Sensitivity analysis, reveals that the predation rate plays a crucial role in the system that has a direct impact on disease spread and the impact of ecological parameters on pest suppression. The results highlight critical thresholds for effective biological control and reveal how the efficiency of Fopius arisanus influences the long-term dynamics of the mango-pest-parasitoid system. Our goal is to keep the spread of Mango pests under control so that mango yield is unaffected. This work contributes to a better understanding of pest regulation mechanisms and supports the design of sustainable, biologically based pest management strategies in mango cultivation.