TITLE:
Analysis of Climate Trends from 1981 to 2050 for Precipitation and Temperatures in the Mouhoun Watershed (Samandeni, Burkina Faso) Based on CMIP6 Simulations Corrected Using NEX-GDDP
AUTHORS:
Dioviel Dominique Somda, Ali Doumounia, Wenceslas Somda, Moumouni Djibo, Telado Luc Bambara, François Zougmore
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation, Future Temperatures, Hydrometeorological Risks, Agricultural Adaptation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology,
Vol.16 No.2,
March
16,
2026
ABSTRACT: In the Sahelian context, characterized by high climate variability, this study aims to produce reliable, high-resolution climate information that can be directly used by climate services to support decision-making in agriculture, water management and climate risk reduction in Burkina Faso. Changes in precipitation and temperatures are analyzed over the period 1981-2050 using local observation data and CMIP6 projections from NEX-GDDP, corrected for bias using Quantile Mapping. Trends are assessed using the Mann-Kendall test, their amplitude estimated using the Theil-Sen estimator, and breaks detected using the Pettitt test. The analysis is based on future climate normals (2001-2030, 2011-2040 and 2021-2050) and includes extreme indices relevant to sectoral uses, such as the duration of consecutive dry and wet sequences (CDD and CWD), average daily rainfall intensity (SDII) and maximum daily precipitation (RX1day). The results show a gradual increase in annual precipitation: +2.86 mm/year over the historical period, +4.53 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and +5.56 mm/year under SSP5-8.5, accompanied by a continuous rise in average temperatures (0.024˚C/year over 1981-2014, then 0.02˚C/year and 0.046˚C/year according to future scenarios), all of which are significant trends (p