TITLE:
Analyzing Rainfall, Temperature, and Socioeconomic Factors behind Migration Trends
AUTHORS:
Deborah Ishaku, Emmanuel Tanko Umaru, Abel Aderemi Adebayo, Ralf Löwner, Elbek Erdanaev, Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe
KEYWORDS:
Migration, Climate Change, Rainfall, Temperature, and Spearman’s Rank Correlation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Environmental Protection,
Vol.17 No.3,
March
5,
2026
ABSTRACT: Climate change increasingly impacts environmental and socio-economic systems in vulnerable regions such as West Africa. This study investigates the relationship between long-term climate variability and migration patterns in north-eastern Nigeria, using rainfall and temperature data from 1981-2021 alongside migration statistics and household surveys. Non-parametric trend and correlation analyses reveal significant warming trends and high spatial variability in rainfall, while correlations between climate variables and net migration are weak and statistically non-significant. Qualitative evidence indicates that livelihood constraints and insecurity, rather than climate alone, are the primary drivers of migration. These findings suggest that climate change functions as an indirect stress multiplier, highlighting the need for policies that integrate climate adaptation with socio-economic development.