TITLE:
Integrated Hydro-Economic Analysis of Water Resource Sustainability in Jordan: Systemic Trade-Offs and Institutional Constraints in the Jordan Valley
AUTHORS:
Rasha Ahmed Al-Rkebat
KEYWORDS:
Hydro-Economic Analysis (HEA), WEFE Nexus, Wicked Problem, System Resilience, Jevons’ Paradox, Nexus Efficiency Index (NEI), Operational Deficit (OD), Jordan Valley
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology,
Vol.16 No.1,
January
30,
2026
ABSTRACT: This research moves beyond conventional water accounting to provide a systemic diagnostic framework for the Jordan Valley, identifying the “Structural Misalignment” between economic incentives and resource sustainability. The primary contribution of this study is the development and validation of a Decision Support System (DSS) powered by two novel composite indices: the Nexus Efficiency Index (NEI) and the Composite Operational Deficit (OD). Unlike traditional reports, this analysis uncovers a critical “Governance Gap” driven by a price-incentive decoupling: a 5.7% agricultural inflation (APPI) occurring simultaneously with a 0.69% national deflation (PPI) in late 2025. By quantifying this divergence, the study provides empirical evidence of Jevons’ Paradox in the Jordan Valley, where technical efficiencies (82% billing) are systematically eroded by the near-zero marginal cost of independent solar-powered pumping. The research’s strategic breakthrough lies in its “Policy Localization” roadmap, designed to mitigate the 83% reduction in international technical support (USAID). Through the integration of Predictive AI (SVM) and Satellite-based Monitoring (IPADT), the study demonstrates how “Focus Metering” can capture 80% of management benefits with minimal infrastructure investment. This work transforms the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) Nexus from a theoretical concept into an actionable, digital governance lever, providing a blueprint for achieving systemic resilience and safeguarding Jordan’s “Hydrological Commons” amidst the global energy and fiscal shifts of 2026.