TITLE:
Inflation-Growth Relationship in SADC Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Threshold Models
AUTHORS:
Coulibaly A. Sandotin, Brou Bosson, Coulibaly Mamadou
KEYWORDS:
Inflation, Growth, SADC Countries
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.16 No.1,
January
6,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study re-examines the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries using dynamic panel threshold models. Based on annual data from 16 SADC countries over the period 2012-2021, we find robust evidence of a threshold effect. Inflation has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth below an estimated threshold of approximately 8.6%. Beyond this level, the relationship becomes negative. The results also indicate negative growth persistence, suggesting vulnerability to economic shocks in the region. These findings have important policy implications for inflation targeting in SADC countries, recommending that policymakers maintain inflation below the identified threshold to foster economic growth while implementing complementary structural reforms.