TITLE:
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use Change and Prediction in an Artisanal Mining Hotspot: A Multi-Decadal Study of the Kampene Mining Area, DRC
AUTHORS:
Espoir M. Birhenjira, Hwaba Mambo, Isaac Bishikwabo, Christian Amani, Jacques M. Batumike
KEYWORDS:
Land Use and Land Cover, Environmental Change, Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining, Gold, Environment, Kampene, Pangi, Maniema
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Environmental Protection,
Vol.16 No.12,
December
30,
2025
ABSTRACT: Artisanal and small-scale (ASM) gold mining activities contribute to the livelihoods of about 200,000 miners and their dependents in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Despite their socio-economic importance, mining activities cause significant alterations to the environment, especially due to their impact on forest cover. Deforestation at mining sites, timber consumption, and pollution are among the observed direct impacts of mining activities. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have been assessed for the period between 1984 and 2020 and predicted for the period between 2020 and 2040 using Landsat images in the Pangi Territory in general, and the Kampene mining area in particular, in the Maniema Province, known as an important mining province in the eastern part of the DRC. In this study, the Support Vector Machine algorithm, Post Classification Change Detection, and Markov Chain Analysis were used to classify, detect, and predict LULC changes, respectively. The results indicate a significant decrease in forest cover from 1984 to 2020, mainly due to the conversion of these areas into agricultural lands, while a significant loss is predicted for the period between 2020 and 2040 as the need for more croplands will increase mainly because of population growth. A transition probability of 0.25 is found for the conversion of primary forest to bare soils and mines, which is comparable with the greatest transition probability of 0.28 obtained in this study for the conversion of primary forest into agricultural lands. This shows the harmful effects of mining activities on the destruction of forest cover. The implementation of land protection and restoration policies and strong control of mining activities are required to reduce the impacts on the environment and forests.