TITLE:
The Structural Transformation of the Jordan Valley’s Agricultural Sector (1990-2023)
AUTHORS:
Rasha Ahmad Al-Rkebat
KEYWORDS:
Jordan Valley, Water Scarcity, Protected Agriculture, Structural Transformation, Political Economy, Jevons Paradox, Rights of Nature, Water Governance, Post-Water Political Economy
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.13 No.12,
December
26,
2025
ABSTRACT: This study analyzes the profound structural transformation of the Jordan Valley (JV) agricultural sector between 1990 and 2023 within a critical political-economy framework. Quantitative analysis reveals a condition of “False Stability”, where a marginal 3.4% decline in total cultivated area (from 29,000 hectare to 28,000 hectare) masks a radical internal restructuring. This shift involves a sharp contraction in traditional, water-intensive open-field crops (a combined loss of 11,500 hectare) compensated by a massive expansion in high-value, technology-intensive protected agriculture and fruit trees (a net gain of 10,500 hectare). This transformation is not organic growth but an adaptational restructuring driven by structural pressures and policy direction, propelled by geopolitical shocks, rising input costs, and acute water scarcity. Findings, updated with Q3 2025 metrics, reveal that this transformation occurs within a context of acute national stress, where Jordanian unemployment stands at 21.4% and female unemployment reaches 33.9%. The analysis further applies the Jevons Paradox, explaining how efficiency-focused policies paradoxically intensify water consumption by incentivizing a shift toward higher-value, yet still thirsty, crops. This phenomenon indicates deeper structural challenges rooted in institutional constraints and structural market barriers that favor large-scale resource concentration. This includes granting legal personhood to the Jordan River and implementing a just transition for smallholder farmers.