Article citationsMore>>

G. Fischer, H. Van Velthuizen, M. Shah and F. Nachtergaele, “Global Agro-Ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and Results,” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg and Austria and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2002.

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa

  AUTHORS: Elodie Blanc

  KEYWORDS: Climate Change; Crop Yield; Error Correction Model

  JOURNAL NAME: American Journal of Climate Change, Vol.1 No.1, March 27, 2012

  ABSTRACT: This study estimates of the impact of climate change on yields for the four most commonly grown crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data approach is used to relate yields to standard weather variables, such as temperature and precipitation, and sophisticated weather measures, such as evapotranspiration and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The model is estimated using data for the period 1961-2002 for 37 countries. Crop yields through 2100 are predicted by combining estimates from the panel analysis with climate change predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). Each GCM is simulated under a range of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions. Relative to a case without climate change, yield changes in 2100 are near zero for cassava and range from –19% to +6% for maize, from –38% to –13% for millet and from –47% to –7% for sorghum under alternative climate change scenarios.