TITLE:
Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Forest Fires in Liangshan Prefecture
AUTHORS:
Yang Chen, Shujie Yuan, Lixin Su, Hongxia Shi, Lin Han, Zijun Zheng
KEYWORDS:
Liangshan Prefecture, Forest Fires, Spatiotemporal Patterns, Driving Factors
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.13 No.11,
November
21,
2025
ABSTRACT: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires in Liangshan Prefecture based on fire data from 2016 to 2024 using statistical methods. The results indicate: 1) From 2016 to 2024, forest fires in Liangshan Prefecture occurred predominantly between January and May (140 incidents), accounting for 97.90% of the total. March recorded the highest number of fires (48 incidents), representing 33.57%. Within a 24-hour period, 113 fires occurred between 12:00 PM and 9:00 PM, constituting 79.02% of all incidents. 2) Spatially, Mianning County recorded the highest number of forest fires (28 incidents, 19.58%), followed by Xichang, Muli, and Yanyuan with 22, 23, and 20 incidents, respectively. Human activities, particularly agricultural burning, outdoor smoking, and other causes, were the dominant factors, collectively accounting for 41% of incidents. 3) Forest fires predominantly occurred at elevations between 1500 and 3000 meters (132 fires, 92.31%), on slopes with gradients of 5 - 25 degrees (81 fires, 56.65%), on west-facing aspects (northwest, west, southwest) (72 fires, 53.14%), in areas with NDVI values between 0.51 and 0.8 (79 incidents, 55.24%), within 500 - 2000 m residential buffer zones (151 incidents, 98.60%), and within 500 m road buffer zones (103 incidents, 72.03%). 4) Among meteorological factors, the 20-day average temperature (0.3041), 80-day maximum temperature (0.3487), 20-day minimum temperature (0.2594), 20-day minimum relative humidity (−0.3132), 70-day maximum wind speed (0.1885), and 70-day peak wind speed (0.1965) showed the strongest correlations with forest fire burned area. Burned area also exhibited a positive correlation with the Meteorological Drought Index (MCI) on the day of the fire (0.1990). This study confirms the lagged and persistent effects of meteorological factors on forest fire occurrence, providing key scientific evidence for constructing regional fire prediction models that integrate multi-scale meteorological indicators.