TITLE:
Analysis of Production Decline Rate to Predict the Life Span of Mnazibay Gas Field
AUTHORS:
Lazaro Isaac, Christina Ndunguru, Paul T. Nsulangi
KEYWORDS:
DCA, Lifespan, MnaziBay Gas Field, Reserve, Production Rate, Decline Rate
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Yangtze Oil and Gas,
Vol.10 No.4,
October
23,
2025
ABSTRACT: This research aims to analyze production decline rate and estimating a lifespan of the MnaziBay natural gas field under different reserve scenarios. The research employed Arp’s decline rate equations together with statistical analysis to evaluate production trend. Research also involves the use of historical production data from the beginning of the field 2007 to 2024 as an actual production data and forecasted production data from 2025 to 2043. The analysis was conducted for three scenarios 1P (proved reserve), 2P (proved plus probable reserve) and 3P (proved plus probable pus possible reserve). The research was successful in establishing different decline rate based on scenarios as well as field abandonment timeline for all three reserve scenarios (1P, 2P and 3P), the analysis found a varying production decline rate across reserve classification. The research discovered that 3P is the scenario that has a longest span with lowest decline rate followed by 2P and 1P respectively.