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Vale, R.S., Santana, R.A.S., Silva, J.T., Miller, S.D., Souza, R.A.F., Picanço, G.A.S., Gomes, A.C.S., Tapajós, R.P. and Pedreiro, M.R. (2016) Medições por covariância de vórtices turbulentos dos fluxos de calor latente, sensível, momentum e CO2 sobre o reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Curuá-Una—PA. Ciência e Natura v.38 Ed. Especial-IX Workshop Brasileiro de Micrometeorologia, Vo. 1, 15-20.
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TITLE:
High-Resolution Climate Modeling of Deforestation Scenarios along the BR-319 Highway
AUTHORS:
Jerfferson Lobato dos Santos, Francis Wagner Silva Correia, Weslley de Brito Gomes, Leonardo Alves Vergasta, Paulo Maurício A. Graça, Philip M. Fearnside
KEYWORDS:
Deforestation, Highways, BR-319, Climate Modeling, Land-Use Change
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.15 No.4,
October
14,
2025
ABSTRACT: This study investigates the impacts of deforestation within the influence area of the BR-319 highway on local climate conditions following its planned reconstruction. High-resolution climate modeling indicates that mean air temperature may increase by up to 0.7˚C under the paved-road scenario (BAU_2) by 2100, with local increases exceeding 2.5˚C in deforested regions during the dry season. Precipitation is projected to rise by an average of up to 0.5 mm∙day−1, with local increases above 2.5 mm∙day−1 in fragmented landscapes. However, this effect is likely temporary and may shift to declining rainfall as deforestation consolidates into large continuous areas. These effects are driven by reduced evapotranspiration, increased surface temperatures, and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Such alterations result in greater moisture convergence over deforested zones, thereby influencing the regional hydrological cycle. The comparison of different deforestation scenarios underscores the significant influence of highway development on local climate. The results highlight the importance of incorporating climate projections into environmental assessments to inform public policy decisions regarding infrastructure projects in the Amazon.