TITLE:
Decoding Togo’s Rainy Season: Historical Trends and Future Shifts under Variability and Changes Using CORDEX-Africa Models
AUTHORS:
Serge Dimitri Bazyomo, Lamboni Batablinlè, Ablam L. Afanou, Yendoubé Lare, Zakari Djibib, Magolmeena Bannaa, Lawin Agnidé Emmanuel
KEYWORDS:
Togo, Seasonal Rainfall, CORDEX-Africa, Climate Projections, Spatial Variability
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Applied Sciences,
Vol.15 No.9,
September
19,
2025
ABSTRACT: This study combines historical analysis (1981-2024) and future projections (2020-2040) to assess seasonal rainfall patterns in Togo, focusing on the May–October rainy season. Using the multi-model mean from the CORDEX-Africa program, data were processed and analyzed in Python, with statistical tests applied to evaluate mean differences, relative changes, and their significance. Historical results reveal a single, well-defined rainy season peaking in August (230.92 mm on average), preceded and followed by an extended dry season from November to April with rainfall typically below 30 mm. Annual precipitation averages around 1500 mm but exhibits strong interannual variability influenced by ENSO events and the West African monsoon system. Spatial analysis shows August as the most challenging month to model accurately, with lower R2 (0.79) and higher RMSE (41.57 mm) due to localized heavy rainfall. Projections for 2020-2040 indicate distinct north-south gradients, with significant increases in rainfall in northern regions during July-August and deficits in the south from July to October, highlighting contrasting flood and drought risks across the country.