TITLE:
The Effects of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Services Value in Côte d’Ivoire (1990-2040): Simulation and Prediction
AUTHORS:
Lènikpoho Karim Coulibaly, Xun Liang, Qingfeng Guan, Naga Coulibaly, Tchimou Vincent Assoma
KEYWORDS:
Ecosystem Services Value, Value Coefficient, LULC Change, PLUS Model, Côte d’Ivoire
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Geosciences,
Vol.16 No.4,
April
28,
2025
ABSTRACT: Ecosystem services values (ESV) are increasingly affected by land use land cover change (LULCC) in Côte d’Ivoire. However, there is a scarcity of studies to understand the current state of the ecological environment and the factors that influence the change of ESV in Côte d’Ivoire. This study aimed to quantify LULCC and the ESV change in Côte d’Ivoire from 1990 to 2040. The methodology used in this study is based on evaluating the change in land use and ESV from 1990 to 2020 and predicting the land cover in 2040 with a cellular automata (CA) based PLUS model. Our results demonstrated that vegetation cover is predicted to decrease by 0.370% per year from 2020 to 2040. Cultivated land is predicted to increase by 0.013% per year from 2020 to 2040. From 2020 to 2040, hotspots of ESV changes are predicted to mainly appear in the Tchologo and Hambol regions. Our results demonstrated that ecosystem management should be made to control cultivated land expansion and protect wetland, and forestland for more sustainable ecosystem services. Ecosystem management to mitigate vegetation loss is necessary to help decisions makers to manage land use, facilitate land use expansion and protect the ecosystem.