TITLE:
Divide and Rule: The Unintended Impact of Paris Agreement Differentiation on LDCs from Africa in Their Climate Diplomacy and Negotiations in the UNFCCC Process
AUTHORS:
Vitumbiko Chinoko, Daniel Olago, George Odera Outa, Nicholas Otienoh Oguge, Gilbert Ouma
KEYWORDS:
Paris Agreement, LDCs, G77 and China, Ambition, Negotiation, Diplomacy, AGN, Differentiation, Unity, Solidarity, Kyoto Protocol, Africa
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.14 No.1,
March
27,
2025
ABSTRACT: The Paris Agreement’s differentiation architecture is a key feature of the international climate regime, enabling countries to submit climate action plans based on their unique national circumstances. The study is designed to investigate the impact of the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture on LDCs from Africa engagement in the UNFCCC process. The study adopted an exploratory research design and adopted a census approach to get a sample size of 66 negotiators from 33 LDCs in the Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN) for questionnaire administration. This paper presents part of the results of the research focused on how the Paris Agreement differentiation architecture inadvertently prevails over the unity of the developing countries and consequently drives collective ambition. The study notes the divide and rule elements of the Paris Agreement through strategic coordination challenges between AGN and LDCs from Africa; the LDCs from Africa’s divergent interests from AGN and G77 and China; and the LDCs’ appropriation of new friends and partnerships. Consequently, LDCs from Africa are covertly and unassumingly redefining the concept of climate justice by transcending the traditional divide between developed and developing countries that characterized the pre-Paris climate regime in calling for accountability for climate action. The study reveals that the Paris Agreement differentiation system contributes to the weakening of the unity of developing nations in their negotiations in the UNFCCC process, as revealed by how LDCs from Africa participate in the climate negotiations under the current climate regime. The study further found that LDCs from Africa’s positions and tactics differ from those of other developing countries by opting to use non-state actors and sometimes collaborating with developed countries. LDCs from Africa have tactfully been indifferent to Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN) interests such as the African Special Circumstances Agenda. While most developing countries have opposed the agenda, the position taken by LDCs from Africa is interesting because these parties come from AGN, which originated and owns this position. The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) growing role in climate discussions, with aspirations to become a formal negotiating group, adds to the diplomatic complexity of the developing countries, which is mainly attributable to the Paris Agreement differentiation framework. The Paris Agreement has resulted in fractured solidarity among developing nations, with developing country groups split into subtle self-interested entities that only use formal coalitions when it suits them. However, the unintended impact of the fissure is that LDCs from Africa and the rest of the LDCs are constantly pushing both developed and emerging economies for enhanced ambition, which is the primary purpose of the Paris Agreement. The deepened association with developed countries and non-state actors, especially civil society organizations, is helping LDCs from Africa to push for ambition through lobbying advocacy and enhancing their capacity in negotiations through the inclusion of non-state actors. Further, this development has enabled LDCs from Africa and others to reshape and redefine the concept of climate justice by advocating for a combined consideration of both historical responsibility and the current actions which ultimately brings emerging developing countries into the fold of accountability The study draws recommendations for LDCs from Africa to ensure unity of developing countries to keep negotiating as one for climate ambition while maintaining flexibility for individual parties to pursue their interests in alignment with the new climate regime.