TITLE:
Effectiveness of CORDEX-AFRICA Multi-Model Ensemble in Replicating Temperature and Associated Extremes over Côte d’Ivoire
AUTHORS:
Assi Louis Martial Yapo, Benjamin K. Kouassi, Adjoua Moise Landry Famien, Pêlèmayo Raoul Touré, Fidèle Yoroba, Dro Touré Tiemoko, Kouakou Kouadio, Mamadou Diarrassouba, Dianikoura Ibrahim Koné, Adama Diawara
KEYWORDS:
Extreme Temperature Indices, Regional Climate Models Evaluation, CORDEX, Côte d’Ivoire
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.15 No.1,
January
15,
2025
ABSTRACT: Developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat climate change is necessary at regional and local scales. The present study analyses the ability of the multi-model ensemble (MME) composed of fourteen (14) CORDEX-Africa simulations to capture characteristics of the mean temperature for the present day (1979-2005) and associated extremes over Côte d’Ivoire. For this end, the analysis uses the mean variables of the temperature (i.e., minimum temperature (TMIN), mean temperature (TMEAN) and maximum temperature (TMAX)) as well as associated extremes such as intra-period extreme temperature range (ETR), warm spell duration index (HWFI) and warm days index (TX90P) during January-February-March (JFM), April-May-June (AMJ), July-August-September (JAS) and October-November-December (OND) seasons. The results indicate that mean temperature variables (TMIN, TMEAN and TMAX) are underestimated by CORDEX MME in general, except TMEAN in the centre of Côte d’Ivoire. On the other hand, extreme temperature indices are overestimated over Côte d’Ivoire, except ETR in JAS with an underestimation of about 2˚C and TX90P during JAS in the southern part of the country in JFM, AMJ and OND with an underestimation varying between 1% to 4%. In addition, CORDEX MME and observational datasets (CPC and NCEP) have a significant correlation in simulating temperature variables (TMIN, TMEAN, TMIN), while this correlation is not significant in general for extreme temperature, except ETR and HWFI. Furthermore, extreme temperatures (TX90P and HWFI) are characterized by more important interannual variability in the observations CPC and NCEP for ETR. Moreover, mean temperature variables (TMIN, TMEAN, TMAX) show slight interannual variability with respect to the observations CPC and NCEP, which are characterized by the most variability. Overall, CORDEX MME outperforms the seasonal and spatial variability of the temperature and associated extremes over Côte d’Ivoire, although some biases in representing their magnitudes. Thus, the results of the present study will help take appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies against heatwaves and extreme temperature advent over Côte d’Ivoire as these climate extremes are projected to increase over the country.