TITLE:
Estimation of the Effects of Greece’s 2012 Memorandum on Macroeconomic and Financial Course with FCM
AUTHORS:
Stavros P. Migkos, Nikolaos T. Giannakopoulos, Damianos P. Sakas, Kyriaki I. Efthalitsidou
KEYWORDS:
2012 Memorandum, Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, Macroeconomics, Financial Crisis, Regression Analysis, FCM, DSS
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.14 No.6,
December
2,
2024
ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the effects of Greece’s 2012 Memorandum on key macroeconomic and financial indicators using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) and statistical analyses, including correlation and linear regression. The Memorandum, implemented as part of Greece’s bailout agreement, aimed to stabilize the economy through austerity measures and structural reforms. The analysis focused on variables such as GDP, public debt, the equilibrium of current transactions, and the government budget. The results revealed significant impacts, with GDP and public debt showing mixed responses to the measures. Specifically, while certain policies led to a modest increase in GDP, they also contributed to a substantial reduction in the government budget and public debt. The findings underscore the complex and sometimes contradictory effects of austerity measures, highlighting the need for more nuanced and targeted fiscal policies in crisis management. This study provides valuable insights into the long-term economic consequences of the 2012 Memorandum on Greece’s economy.