TITLE:
The Actuarial Data Intelligent Based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Automobile Insurance Inflation Adjusted Frequency Severity Loss Reserving Model
AUTHORS:
Brighton Mahohoho
KEYWORDS:
Artificial Neural Network, Actuarial Loss Reserving, Machine Learning, Intelligent Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.14 No.5,
October
31,
2024
ABSTRACT: This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.