TITLE:
Cross-Correlation between Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 with a Temperature-Leading Time Lag
AUTHORS:
Masaharu Nishioka
KEYWORDS:
Global Warming, Thermally-Induced CO2, Soil Respiration, Cross-Correlation Coefficient, Time Lag, El Niño
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.14 No.4,
October
23,
2024
ABSTRACT: The temperature change and rate of CO2 change are correlated with a time lag, as reported in a previous paper. The correlation was investigated by calculating a correlation coefficient r of these changes for selected ENSO events in this study. Annual periodical increases and decreases in the CO2 concentration were considered, with a regular pattern of minimum values in August and maximum values in May each year. An increased deviation in CO2 and temperature was found in response to the occurrence of El Niño, but the increase in CO2 lagged behind the change in temperature by 5 months. This pattern was not observed for La Niña events. An increase in global CO2 emissions and a subsequent increase in global temperature proposed by IPCC were not observed, but an increase in global temperature, an increase in soil respiration, and a subsequent increase in global CO2 emissions were noticed. This natural process can be clearly detected during periods of increasing temperature specifically during El Niño events. The results cast strong doubts that anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of global warming.