TITLE:
Dynamic Two-phase Truncated Rayleigh Model for Release Date Prediction of Software
AUTHORS:
Lianfen Qian, Qingchuan Yao, Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar
KEYWORDS:
Software Testing, Weekly Defect Arrival Data, Single-Phase Rayleigh Model, Two-Phase Truncated Rayleigh Model, Software Reliability
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Software Engineering and Applications,
Vol.3 No.6,
June
24,
2010
ABSTRACT: Software reliability modeling and prediction are important issues during software development, especially when one has to reach a desired reliability prior to software release. Various techniques, both static and dynamic, are used for reliability modeling and prediction in the context of software risk management. The single-phase Rayleigh model is a dynamic reliability model; however, it is not suitable for software release date prediction. We propose a new multi-phase truncated Rayleigh model and obtain parameter estimation using the nonlinear least squares method. The proposed model has been successfully tested in a large software company for several software projects. It is shown that the two-phase truncated Rayleigh model outperforms the traditional single-phase Rayleigh model in modeling weekly software defect arrival data. The model is useful for project management in planning release times and defect management.