TITLE:
An Empirical Study on the Impact of Port on Hinterland Economy
AUTHORS:
Xuanchao Cai, Bingliang Song
KEYWORDS:
Hinterland Economy, Shanghai Port, Vector Autoregression Model, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.15 No.8,
August
28,
2024
ABSTRACT: This study focuses on Shanghai Port as the subject of investigation, employing measurement methods such as co-integration theory and Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, and variance analysis. It utilizes data from 2000 to 2022 and selects indicators related to both Shanghai Port and the economic development of its hinterland in order to examine their relationship. The research results indicate that there is a stable dynamic equilibrium relationship between Shanghai Port and hinterland economy development. In the short term, Shanghai Port has a certain promoting effect on hinterland economic growth; however, in the long term, there is no significant evidence to suggest that the growth of the hinterland economy significantly promotes the development of Shanghai Port. Through variance decomposition analysis, it can be observed that the development of Shanghai Port has a stronger influence on the Actual Utilization of Foreign Capital in its hinterland compared to GDP and the Value-added of Tertiary Industry. Building upon these results, this paper also offers recommendations for fostering interactive development between Shanghai Port and its hinterland economy, which can serve as valuable guidance for relevant stakeholders and decision-makers.