TITLE:
The Economy Decides the Turnout and Election Results
AUTHORS:
Giovanni Antonio Cossiga
KEYWORDS:
Social Rapports, Constant & Coordinated Development, Collectivity Voting, Inflation and Deflation, Italy, French
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.14 No.4,
August
28,
2024
ABSTRACT: This article was written because it was prompted by French President Macron’s decision to dissolve Parliament and call new elections in France. In essence, the decision is intended to be the answer to the question that, like many, I have asked myself: “what response will the French community give to the new vote, after the vote for the EU Parliament”. The answer to the question is the following article in which the result is prefigured, according to three possible hypotheses. That is, first, a vote for the French legislative elections as a photocopy of that for the European Assembly. Second, there is a potential divergence between the two close votes of the French community. Finally, the third option, there would be a big difference between the two voting decisions. Discarding the unrealistic first hypothesis, attention focused on the second hypothesis, i.e. a vote different but not overwhelming compared to the results of the European vote. I repeat, the text was written before knowing the voting decisions in the legislative elections in France, except obviously taking note of the results of the first and second rounds of voting. The final result is not surprising and confirms that the communities decide on the basis of previous experience and the results of the government in office in terms of economic development. Well, the tone of the French economy, like that of Italy, marks a period of relative weakness. Does this explain the defeat of President Macron’s party in the European elections? So how can we explain the gap between the two voting events? Can we suppose that voters are able to give weight, so to speak, both to the participation attributed in terms of economic development to both the EU and the metropolitan territory? We cannot exclude it, although the community anticipates the judgment on the quality of development, deciding in advance whether things in the economy are going well or badly. Now there is no doubt that at a metropolitan level, the community has a mass of first-hand information, from wages, spending, savings, investments, and so on. Information is not available on the topic of EU participation in the development of the individual countries that are part of it. Returning to the result in France, there is no doubt about the reasons for the recovery of the President’s party, linked to the limited but expanding development of France. While a certain freedom of vote and a less ideological evaluation can be seen for the European vote. Less credible are the ideological reasons that took Le Pen’s right to make progress after the first round of the legislative elections in France for granted.