TITLE:
An Analysis of the Impact of Stay-at-Home Measures on the Occurrence of Vaccine Shortages
AUTHORS:
Nurunnahar
KEYWORDS:
Epidemic Dynamics, Non-Pharmaceuticals Interventions, Vaccine Shortage, Multi-Waving
JOURNAL NAME:
Advances in Infectious Diseases,
Vol.14 No.2,
May
24,
2024
ABSTRACT: COVID-19, a contagious respiratory disease, presents immediate and unforeseen challenges to people worldwide. Moreover, its transmission rapidly extends globally due to its viral transmissibility, emergence of novel strains (variants), absence of immunity, and human unawareness. This framework introduces a revised epidemic model, drawing upon mathematical principles. This model incorporates a modified vaccination and lockdown approach to comprehensively depict an epidemic’s transmission, containment, and decision-making processes within a community. This study aims to provide policymakers with precise information on real-world situations to assist them in making informed decisions about the implementation of lockdown strategies, maintenance variables, and vaccine availability. The suggested model has conducted stability analysis, strength number analysis, and first and second-order derivative analysis of the Lyapunov function and has established the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the proposed models. We examine the combined effects of an effective vaccination campaign and non-pharmaceutical measures such as lockdowns and states of emergency. We rely on the results of this research to assist policymakers in various countries in eradicating the illness by developing more innovative measures to control the outbreak.