TITLE:
The Future Trend of E-Mobility in Terms of Battery Electric Vehicles and Their Impact on Climate Change: A Case Study Applied in Hungary
AUTHORS:
Mohamad Ali Saleh Saleh
KEYWORDS:
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVS), Gasoline, Diesel, Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs), Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.13 No.2,
May
8,
2024
ABSTRACT: The transportation sector is responsible for 25% of the total Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, whereas 60.6% of this sector represents small and medium passenger cars. However, as noted by the European Union Long-term strategy, there are two ways to reduce the amount of CO2 emissions in the transportation sector. The first way is characterized by creating more efficient vehicles. In contrast, the second way is characterized by changing the fuel used. The current study addressed the second way, changing the fuel type. The study examined the potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an alternative fuel type to reduce CO2 emissions in Hungary’s transportation sector. The study used secondary data retrieved from Statista and stata.com to analyze the future trends of BEVs in Hungary. The results showed that the percentage of BEVs in Hungary in 2022 was 0.4% compared to the total number of registered passenger cars, which is 3.8 million. The simple exponential smoothing (SES) time series forecast revealed that the number of BEVs is expected to reach 84,192 in 2030, indicating a percentage increase of 2.21% in the next eight years. The study suggests that increasing the number of BEVs is necessary to address the negative impact of CO2 emissions on society. The Hungarian Ministry of Innovation and Technology’s strategy to reduce the cost of BEVs may increase the percentage of BEVs by 10%, resulting in a potential average reduction of 76,957,600 g/km of CO2 compared to gasoline, diesel, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs).