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Estrella, A. and Mishkin, F.S. (1998) Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 45-61.
https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557320

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Yield Curve and the Business Cycle in Conventional Times

  AUTHORS: Roman Šustek

  KEYWORDS: Term Structure of Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Business Cycle, Recursive Preferences, Stochastic Volatility

  JOURNAL NAME: Journal of Mathematical Finance, Vol.14 No.1, February 27, 2024

  ABSTRACT: This paper offers a structural interpretation of the “leading indicator” properties of the yield curve observed in conventional times of monetary policy. Low levels of nominal interest rates and inflation, but a steeper yield curve, typically precede economic expansions. According to the model, if investors use bond markets mainly to hedge risk, positive economic news are only weakly transmitted into real interest rates, but monetary policy transmits them into lower inflation and nominal rates. A steeper yield curve reflects both expected faster growth and higher uncertainty about the growth path. Importantly, the mechanism conforms with other important term structure properties.