TITLE:
Dynamic Analysis of Influencing Factors and Forecast of Development Trend of “Disappearance of Rural Primary Schools”
AUTHORS:
Bin Yan
KEYWORDS:
VAR, Primary School, School Closure and Merger
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Service Science and Management,
Vol.17 No.1,
February
27,
2024
ABSTRACT: A time
series model was used to screen the causes of changes in the number of rural
elementary schools from 1996 to 2019 related to schools, classes, and students
in rural, township, and urban areas, as well as the birth rate, population growth rate, and urbanization rate, and a VAR
model was developed with five strong influencing factors of rural
classes, students, urban schools, classes, and growth rate of students in
schools and changes in rural schools. The variance decomposition of the model
shows that the continuous reduction of rural classes (student attrition) and
the growth of urban students (rural students’ rural-urban mobility) are the main reasons for the disappearance of rural elementary schools, while the policy of “removing and merging schools” does not have a long-term impact on the disappearance of rural schools
and does not accelerate the disappearance of rural elementary school.