TITLE:
Modeling Study of the Evolution of the Climate Crisis over Time
AUTHORS:
Victor Rogelio Tirado Picado
KEYWORDS:
Climate Crisis, Model, Climatic Factors, Evolution, Temperature
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Applied Sciences,
Vol.14 No.2,
February
20,
2024
ABSTRACT: The research proposal has the
following scope. In relation to the general objective, the aim is to model the
evolution of the climate crisis over time taking as variables global warming,
greenhouse gases, atmospheric temperature and ocean temperature, as well as the
continuity of the natural phenomena in terms of their measurement, temporality
and projection. To achieve the above, the description of the following specific
objectives is proposed: Identify the variables corresponding to the climate
crisis, their relationship and correlation between them; Develop projection
models with mathematical and statistical arrangements to project them in a
given time and, in this way, propose mitigation measures for different
unfavorable scenarios. The main variables that are currently directly linked to
Climate Change are: CO2, the atmospheric index, precipitation,
temperature and wind speed. The correlation that exists between climatic
elements is very high, both in historical behavior and projected behavior for 2035,
their correlation is estimated at 0.90, 0.95, 0.93 and 91 respectively. The
mathematical models used to manipulate the historical and projected analysis of
the variables studied: are the normal arrangements, this ensures that the
values can be used on a common scale; Then there is the analysis of the
historical variables using the linear trend, and finally there is the analysis
of the variables projected to the year 2035 using the polynomial trend. In both
situations, the direct relationship of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2,
is directly related to the variations of the variables over time, which is a
very worrying result because we can no longer talk about climate change, but
rather about CLIMATE CRISIS. To a large extent, a change in the paradigm of exploitation
of the resources of our mother earth is required. Alert in an SOS manner to the
great powers, which make reasonable use of technology, for this attenuation
measures are proposed.