TITLE:
The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing
AUTHORS:
Chunhuan Xiang
KEYWORDS:
Consumer Price Index of Residents, Prediction, ARMA Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics,
Vol.12 No.1,
January
30,
2024
ABSTRACT: The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.