TITLE:
Design of Financial and Economic Cyclical Model and Validation of Domestic Economic Effects
AUTHORS:
Jinrun Yang
KEYWORDS:
Financial Economic Cyclicality Model, Domestic Economy, Real Estate Asset Prices, Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, Credit, Financial Coverage, Stock Asset Price
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.11 No.12,
December
22,
2023
ABSTRACT: Financial economic cycle theory is the latest development in the field of
economic cycle theory at the forefront of the hotspot. In this paper, credit,
financial leverage, real estate asset prices, and stock asset prices are
selected to measure financial cycles, gross domestic product (GDP) is used to
measure gross national output in China, and consumer price index (CPI) is used
to reflect the total price level, and the year-on-year growth rate of the above
indexes is taken as the corresponding proxy variables, to design a financial
economic cyclical model. The model is calibrated based on the quarterly data of
the real Chinese economy from 1992Q1 to 2011Q1, and the effect of the model
fitting the real Chinese economy is investigated.