TITLE:
A Comprehensive Analysis of Demand Prediction Models in Supply Chain Management
AUTHORS:
Hamid Badr, Waqar Ahmed
KEYWORDS:
Demand Forecasting, Supply Chain Management, Promotions, Time Series, Demand Planning
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Industrial and Business Management,
Vol.13 No.12,
December
12,
2023
ABSTRACT: The capacity to provide accurate demand projections
is essential for supply chain management to work well. Because their
projections influence important choices at every stage of the supply chain,
including sourcing raw materials, manufacturing, transportation, and inventory
management, the demand team bears a great deal of obligation. Precise demand
projections greatly impact customer satisfaction and organizational efficiency
in general, ultimately saving money and effort. Even though they are essential,
historical demand and sales statistics frequently fall short. Traditional
statistical models neglect to account for complex variables and do not have the
necessary accuracy. In demand forecasting, advertisements are often
underutilized while being a significant source of complexity. Forecast accuracy
is improved by combining time series approaches with expert opinion and data
from unique occurrences. This research aims to develop a thorough grasp of
demand planning and offer workable methods to improve supply chain oversight.
Our technique includes both quantitative and qualitative study design
methodologies developed from comprehensive data obtained through published
examination of secondary sources and critical observation. The collected data
is analyzed, and conclusions are drawn from our data analysis using a variety
of data analysis methodologies, such as statistical, thematic, and content
assessment. Not only are different approaches to model construction
highlighted, but study comparisons and recommendations are also examined, along
with a review of the literature gathered from various academic publications and
papers. The study recognizes the inherent difficulties in demand planning, such
as the requirement for sophisticated ideas and applications, a trained labor
force, and the coordination of deliberative techniques with supply chain and
logistical procedures. In conclusion, this paper seeks to improve logistical
and supply chain operations by tackling current issues, offering insights into
demand factors, refining demand forecasting models, and presenting helpful
suggestions to companies on maximizing demand planning procedures to increase
operational effectiveness and satisfaction among consumers. In addition, it
offers a thorough study of the several techniques used to project future sales,
gauge forecast accuracy, and enhance the demand planning procedure as a whole.
It also thoroughly assesses the fundamental ideas and tactics involved in
demand planning. Furthermore, it emphasizes the value of considering demand
planning from various angles in addition to statistical techniques, as well as
the individual contributions of every workforce.