TITLE:
Statistical Methods and Electoral Integrity: The 2022 Brazilian Elections
AUTHORS:
Ary Jorge Aguiar Nogueira
KEYWORDS:
Electoral Fraud, Electoral Integrity, Electoral Law, Quantitative Method, Brazil
JOURNAL NAME:
Beijing Law Review,
Vol.14 No.2,
June
9,
2023
ABSTRACT: Electoral fraud hinders accountability and undermines the legitimacy of governments. Ensuring that electoral results reflect voters’ preferences and will is a crucial element of representative democracies. This is one of the main aspects of electoral integrity. Electoral integrity refers to a set of principles, rules, and norms aimed at ensuring fairness, transparency, and justice in the electoral process. In Brazil, the discussion about electoral integrity is primarily a matter of law. However, even dogmatic knowledge like law can benefit from empiricism. I propose a combination of quantitative methods for detecting potential anomalies in electoral results. The method combines an analysis of digits (the last digit) with a quick count to identify any significant deviations between an ideal fair election and the results observed in the 2022 Brazilian Elections. The findings suggest no indication of fraud. This study aims to contribute to research on electoral integrity by presenting empirical evidence.