TITLE:
Effect of International Crude Oil Prices on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product from (1985-2020)
AUTHORS:
Sadeeq Sani Sami Sule-Iko, May I. Nwoye
KEYWORDS:
Crude Oil, Oil Price, Dutch Disease, Rent-Seeking, Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Human Resource and Sustainability Studies,
Vol.11 No.1,
March
14,
2023
ABSTRACT: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil price and its volatility on the development of Nigeria’s economy; this is due to the decline of the Nigerian economy as a result of decrease in daily oil production and plum-meting oil prices. The study assesses both long-and short-term effects of oil price volatility on real GDP in Nigeria. To achieve the basic objective of this research and to ascertain a comprehensive and robust outcome, the study adopted secondary data such as Nigeria’s Real GDP, Crude Oil Price, Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that covers the period 1985 to 2020. In the analysis of data collected the research adopts Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. From the analysis, it can be deduced that in the short run, there is a positive impact of oil price on real GDP which is statistically significant at one percent level. As real exchange rate rises by one percent, the real GDP rises by 1.528 per cent, all things being equal. While the long run, the effect is positive and statistically significant measuring 14.67 positive effects on the economy. It also revealed that while oil price volatility affects economic development positively in the short term, its effect in the long term is not statistically significant. Findings from the study revealed that crude prices have a positive effect on GDP in Nigeria. Therefore, sustaining an equilibrium tempo of crude oil supply in Nigeria is crucial while the international community should allow the forces of demand and supply to play its role. This is because the rate of supply has effect on price and frequent change in price means high volatility. The article is structured as follows: introduction, literature review, methodology, data analysis, discussion of findings and recommendations.