TITLE:
From Deterministic to Random Models: An Analysis of the New Spanish Overtaking Traffic Law
AUTHORS:
Enrique Castillo, José Duato, Javier Girón
KEYWORDS:
Bayesian Network, Modelling, OpenBUGS, Weibull Distribution
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.13 No.1,
February
28,
2023
ABSTRACT: The purpose of the research is to analyze the new Spanish law of Traffic,
which no longer permits exceeding by up to 20 km/hour the generic speed limits
when overtaking on conventional roads. In this research, deterministic and
random models are developed to analyze the associated safety risks. The
deterministic model highlights the importance of dimensional analysis and
provides dimensionless abacuses to analyze the problem. Next, Bayesian networks
and Bayesian models are used to build a random model from the previous one,
providing a general method to convert deterministic into random models. In
addition, the problems of ignoring the dimensions of the variables and
parameters are discussed, a common mistake to be corrected. Some examples and
multidimensional graphics illustrate the huge reduction in safety and the need
to review the existing end of prohibition signs, most of which must be removed.
Shortly, the research results show that the distance required for overtaking
with safety increases drastically.