TITLE:
Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Occult Transmission of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic
AUTHORS:
Kun Wang, Lu Wang, Linhua Zhou
KEYWORDS:
Omicron Epidemic, Epidemic Dynamics Model, Hidden Transmission, Numerical Simulation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics,
Vol.11 No.2,
February
17,
2023
ABSTRACT: At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems of different countries. Omicron infections were first found in Chinese Mainland in Tianjin in December 2021, and Omicron epidemic broke out in many parts of China in 2022. In order to enable the country and government to make scientific and accurate decisions in the face of the epidemic, it is particularly important to predict and analyze the relevant factors of Omicron’s covert transmission. In this paper, based on the official data of Jilin City and the improved SEIR dynamic model, through parameter estimation, the contact infection probability of symptomatic infected persons in Omicron infected patients is 0.4265, and the attenuation factor is 0.1440. Secondly, the influence of infectious duration in different incubation periods, asymptomatic infected persons and other factors on the epidemic situation in this area was compared. Finally, the scale of epidemic development was predicted and analyzed.