TITLE:
Modelling COVID-19 Cumulative Number of Cases in Kenya Using a Negative Binomial INAR (1) Model
AUTHORS:
Charity Wamwea, Susan Mwelu, Matabel Odin
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19 Predictive Model, New SARS-CoV-2, Integer Valued Autoregressive (INAR) Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.11 No.1,
January
30,
2023
ABSTRACT: In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive
model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number
of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the three waves
starting from 14th March 2020 to 1st February 2021. The
first wave was experienced from 14th March 2020 to 15th September 2020, the second wave from around 15th September 2020 to 1st February 2021 and the third wave was experienced from 1st February
2021 to 3rd June 2021. 5, 10, and 15-day-ahead forecasts are obtained for these three
waves and the performance of the NB-INAR (1) model analysed.