TITLE:
Contribution of Climate Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Farming in Côte d’Ivoire
AUTHORS:
Adama Bamba, N’Datchoh E. Toure, Kouakou Kouadio, Stéphane A. A. Ahoua, Dolores V. M. Kouakou, Fidèle Yoroba, Kakou M’Bo, Mamadou Cherif, Daouda Kone, Arona Diedhiou
KEYWORDS:
CORDEX, Climate, Indices, Cocoa, Temperature, Precipitation
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.13 No.1,
January
29,
2023
ABSTRACT: In the particular context of
climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its
effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields
of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably
increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of
climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of
Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a
humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from
the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5o × 0.5o horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come
from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is
based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the
number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy
season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all
the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an
increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season
(April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm
representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree.
It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be
greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas
could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in
terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the
regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated
constraints.