TITLE:
Short-Term Kinematics of the Adria Plate and Space-Time Distribution of Major Peri-Adriatic Earthquakes
AUTHORS:
Enzo Mantovani, Marcello Viti, Daniele Babbucci, Caterina Tamburelli, Massimo Baglione, Vittorio D’Intinosante
KEYWORDS:
Tectonics, Adriatic, Short-Term Plate Kinematics, Seismicity Distribution
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Geosciences,
Vol.13 No.12,
December
12,
2022
ABSTRACT: Seismic activity is quite
strong in the peri-Adriatic zones, whereas the internal part of the Adria plate
is almost aseismic. This pattern suggests that Adria is a solid block that
interacts with the surrounding belts, trying to move roughly northward. Each
major earthquake in a peri-Adriatic zone triggers the acceleration of the
decoupled Adria sector, which induces a perturbation of the stress/strain
fields in the still blocked boundaries of the plate. Step by step, the
displacement of Adria involves more and more northern zones to finally reach
the northern front of the plate (eastern Southern Alps). This interpretation seems to be compatible with the time patterns
of seismic activity in the main peri-Adriatic zones since 1600 A.D., which may
suggest repeated northward migrations of seismic crises. Each supposed
migrating sequence involves major earthquakes in most zones. The main
features of the first 4 seismic sequences (1600-1930) are used to get insights
into possible regularities in the progressive activations of the peri-Adriatic
zones. This information and the main features of the ongoing migrating sequence
(since 1931) are then used to tentatively recognize the peri-Adriatic zones
where the occurrence of next major earthquakes may be most likely.