TITLE:
Investigating Trend in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Its Association with Obesity in the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) Countries from 1990 to 2019
AUTHORS:
Sarah Al-Gahtani, Talal Abozaid, Saad Al-Gahtani, Mohamed M. Shoukri, Maha Aleid
KEYWORDS:
Cardiovascular Diseases, Risk Factors, Time Series Data, Generalized Linear Mixed Models, Predictive Analytics
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Epidemiology,
Vol.12 No.3,
June
29,
2022
ABSTRACT: Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death globally. An estimated 17.9 million people died from CVDs in 2019, representing 32% of all global deaths. Of these deaths, 85% were due to heart attack and stroke. Over three quarters of CVD deaths take place in low- and middle-income countries. We have studied the pattern of mortality due to cardiovascular in the six countries of the Arabian Gulf and its association with obesity over the 29 years 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used the linear mixed effect models to investigate the pattern of CVD mortality over the year 1990 to 2019, together with the pattern of change in one of the most important risk factors that is obesity, and its association with CVD mortality over the same period. Conclusions: Although there were fluctuations in the pattern of mortality and the prevalence of obesity over the specified period, there has been a steady decline in the per-100,000 number of deaths and the prevalence of obesity. However, there was a strong association between the two variables. From the fitted models we estimated that a one percent increase in obesity is associated with an average increase in cardiovascular deaths of 2.7 deaths per 100,000.