TITLE:
Estimating Tax Revenue Elasticity of Municipal Tobacco Taxes by Region with Average Adjustment Lags
AUTHORS:
Shunsuke Sekiguchi, Toshihiro Watanabe
KEYWORDS:
Tobacco Price, Municipal Tax Revenue, Average Adjustment Lags, Japan
JOURNAL NAME:
Current Urban Studies,
Vol.10 No.2,
June
23,
2022
ABSTRACT: In Japan, the uniform and simultaneous regulation of tobacco prices using the tobacco retail price system is regarded as a social issue. Previous studies have estimated the price elasticity or tax revenue elasticity of uniform national prices from the perspective of smoke-free promotion policies and basic municipal finances; however, uniform national estimates cannot provide sufficient data to help solve social issues. This study aimed to estimate the tax revenue elasticity of the basic municipal tobacco tax by region by considering the demand adjustment mechanism (average adjustment lag) with reference to previous studies on energy to address social and academic issues further. The results showed that the short- and long-term tax revenue elasticities differed by region—especially in the long-term—with the highest and lowest values being 4.029 (Tokai Bureau of Finance) and 1.973 (Shikoku Bureau of Finance), respectively. While previous studies estimated the short-term elasticity to be below one, the long-term elasticity was above one for all regions, indicating that the earlier results may have been underestimated. We also found differences in the average adjusted lag between the uniform national and regional estimates. As a concrete policy measure, it is better to change the current tobacco tax from a specific tax to an ad valorem tax and allow JT and other tobacco manufacturers and distributors to set the main price by region.