TITLE:
Simulating the Impact of the Economic Sustainability Plan on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy in the Post COVID-19 Era
AUTHORS:
David Terfa Akighir, Emmanuel Tordue Kpoghul, Emmanuel John Ebele, Roselynda Ikwue, James Vaachia Ikyator, Joyce Mbakosun Ayaga
KEYWORDS:
Economic Sustainability Plan, Economic Performance, Government Expenditure and Simulation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.10 No.2,
March
30,
2022
ABSTRACT: This study examines the impact of Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) on
the performance of the Nigerian economy as a national economic resilient policy
in the post COVID-19 era within the framework of a macro-econometric model. The
study is hinged on the Keynesian general theory of employment, income and
interest. Annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2019 for within sample
forecast, and a six-year out-of-sample forecast spanning from 2020 to 2025 were
used. The policy scenario of 21.3 percent increase in government expenditure
under the ESP as a stimulus package was simulated and the findings showed that
increase in government expenditure under the ESP in critical areas would bring
about significant impact on the macroeconomic performance of the Nigerian
economy, especially on employment, inflation, economic growth and balance of
payment in the post COVID-19 era. Emergent
from these findings, the study recommended among others that the government should mobilize resources to finance the ESP in order to stimulate the economy
in the post COVID-19 era by ensuring prudential fiscal management of resources;
and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should ensure that financial institutions
saddled with the responsibility of disbursement of intervention funds reduce
interest rate from 9 percent to 5 percent as reflected in the ESP.