TITLE:
A Mathematical Model of COVID-19: Analysis and Identification of Parameters for Better Decision Making
AUTHORS:
Ouaténi Diallo, Yaya Kone, Chata Sanogo, Jérôme Pousin
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19, Mathematical Model, R0, Spread, Control Parameters, Malian Data
JOURNAL NAME:
Applied Mathematics,
Vol.13 No.2,
February
25,
2022
ABSTRACT: Since the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, the world has been impressed by two things: The number of people infected and the number of deaths. Here, we propose a mathematical model of the spread of this disease, analyze this model mathematically and determine one or more dominant factors in the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider the S-E-I-R epidemic model in the form of ordinary differential equations, in a population structured in susceptibles S, exposed E as caregivers, travelers and assistants at public events, infected I and recovered R classes. Here we decompose the recovered class into two classes: The deaths class D and the class of those who are truly healed H. After the model construction, we have calculated the basic reproduction number R0, which is a function of certain number of parameters like the size of the exposed class E. In our paper, the mathematical analysis, which consists in searching the equilibrium points and studying their stability, is done. The work identifies some parameters on which one can act to control the spread of the disease. The numerical simulations are done and they illustrate our theoretical analysis.