TITLE:
A Model that Forecasts Future Values of Reproductive Success for the Pacific Stock of Splendid Alfonsino
AUTHORS:
Kazumi Sakuramoto
KEYWORDS:
Reproductive Successes, RPS, Splendid Alfonsino, AO, PDO, Fisheries Management, TAC
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.8 No.12,
December
22,
2021
ABSTRACT: A model that forecasts future values of the reproductive success (RPS) for the Pacific stock of Splendid alfonsino (Beryx splendens) using environmental factors is described. The monthly Arctic oscillation index and Pacific decadal oscillation were used as the environmental factors. The RPS from 1999 to 2019 was reproduced and that from 2020 to 2024 was forecasted. The results were as follows: The fitness between the observed and reproduced RPS coincided well. The average RPS from 1999 to 2019 was 0.361, and that from 2020 to 2024 was 0.370. Cases in which future values of RPS can be forecast are extremely rare. If future values of RPS can be forecast, the information will contribute to fishery resource management.