TITLE:
Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misclassification
AUTHORS:
Umar M. Abdulkarim
KEYWORDS:
Final Size Epidemic, Infectious Period Distribution, Maximum Likelihood Es-timates, Misclassification Probabilities
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.11 No.5,
October
28,
2021
ABSTRACT: In this work, we developed a theoretical framework leading to
misclassification of the final size epidemic data for the stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed),
household epidemic model, with false negative and false positive
misclassification probabilities. Maximum likelihood based algorithm is then
employed for its inference. We then analyzed and compared the estimates of the
two dimensional model with those of the three and four dimensional models
associated with misclassified final size data over arrange of theoretical
parameters, local and global infection rates and corresponding proportion
infected in the permissible region, away from its boundaries and
misclassification probabilities. The
adequacies of the three models to the final size data are examined. The four
and three-dimensional models are found to outperform the two dimensional model
on misclassified final size data.