TITLE:
The Seasonal Rainfall Forecast in Nanning City in 2019 with the Method of Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR)
AUTHORS:
Rongzhi Tan, Chunzhen Wang, Rong Chen
KEYWORDS:
Rainfall, Forecast, Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR), Nanning City
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.11 No.4,
October
21,
2021
ABSTRACT: In this paper, the monthly rainfall statistical data of Nanning City,
Capital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,
China, from 2006 to 2018, were collected. On the basis of qualitative
analysis of the rainfall seasonal changing law, the non-linear seasonal
rainfall forecast model on Nanning City with the method of Trend Comparison
Ratio (TCR) was established by the statistical analysis software Office Excel 2013. The model was used to predict the rainfall
in spring, summer, autumn and winter in Nanning in 2019. The results
were: 286.41 mm, 695.79 mm, 292.20 mm and 118.11 mm,
respectively. It was also found that the predicted results were consistent with
the seasonal distribution characteristics,
annual distribution characteristics and the trend of historical rainfall time series fluctuation, through the
qualitative analysis of figures. Compared with the actual measured
rainfall data of Nanning City in 2019 in the China Statistical Yearbook (2020),
the predicted values are basically consistent with the measured values.